Refino brasileiro: um debate da nação
Revista digital Oil & Gas Brasil
A importação de derivados de petróleo coloca o Brasil em uma posição de vulnerabilidade. Essa dinâmica não seria necessária se o país tivesse a estrutura física demandada para o refino. Porém, o debate recente gravitou mais em torno dos preços no refino e pouco sobre a estrutura física. Uma discussão sobre o tema deveria considerar quem são os atores relevantes, a necessidade de expansão e, por fim, como se daria tal expansão. O objetivo deste artigo é expor algumas razões que apontam para uma necessidade de ampliação do parque de refino. E, nesse sentido, olhar a dinâmica de alguns derivados ajudará a iluminar o debate.
A legislação marítima internacional, no esforço de redução de poluentes atmosféricos, limitou a quantidade de enxofre (0,5%) que pode ser liberada pelos navios. Isso gerou uma inflexão com dois caminhos possíveis: o primeiro era a adequação da frota marítima para que ela pudesse atingir os níveis de emissões autorizados e o segundo consistia na adequação do combustível utilizado (bunker). Na segunda rota, o Brasil tem uma vantagem competitiva, pois o petróleo nacional possui predicados que viabilizam um bunker com enxofre baixo (1,0%), porém, ainda insuficiente, e uma forma utilizada para garantir a qualidade é adicionar uma quantidade de diesel com baixo teor de enxofre à mistura. A vantagem do Brasil levou a uma mudança entre o perfil de consumo interno e produção. Entre 2005-2016, dados da Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) mostram que a razão entre consumo e produção de óleo combustível era, em média, de 45%. Já entre 2017-2021, essa razão foi para 28%, com a produção relativamente estável no período e as exportações saltando de 8,4 milhões m³/ano no primeiro período para 10,3 milhões m³/ano no segundo.
As projeções da EPE indicam que o Brasil deverá elevar sua exportação de bunker de forma crescente até 2030. As exportações de bunker se revelaram competitiva, mas é preciso considerar que parte dessas exportações levaram óleo diesel que poderia ser utilizado no consumo interno. O óleo diesel no Brasil é utilizado no transporte rodoviário (75% do total) e o país tem uma posição deficitária. No período entre 2005-2015, a relação entre consumo e produção foi de 113%, levando a uma importação média de 7,1 milhão de m³/ano de óleo diesel. Já no período entre 2016-2021, a relação passou para 128%, demandando 12,8 milhões de m³/ano de importação média.
De acordo com a EPE, o Brasil manterá a sua posição de importador de diesel (30% do total) e aprofundará essa condição chegando, em 2030, a importar 55 mil m³/dia, superando as máximas de 2019 com 36 mil m³/dia. A exportação de bunker ajuda na margem dos refinadores, porém, a crescente importação de diesel impacta negativamente a balança comercial. Já a oferta doméstica de querosene de aviação (QAV) deve permanecer constante e terá aderência à demanda até o ano de 2024, conforme a EPE. A partir de 2025, haverá um descolamento entre a demanda e a oferta com um aumento das importações que atingirá 7.200 m³/dia no ano de 2030. Assim, no período entre 2023 e 2030, a demanda dos três derivados será crescente e eles disputam a mesma estrutura de retirada de enxofre disponível no país. A redução dos níveis atuais e futuros de importação desses derivados passa por investimentos para superação de alguns gargalos existentes, entre os quais, a ampliação da capacidade de retirada de enxofre. Não investir na estrutura física é fazer a escolha de conviver com elevados níveis de importação desses derivados nos próximos anos. Essa opção deve ficar clara para a sociedade.
» Leia também outros artigos sobre Abastecimento e distribuição. Clique aqui.
Esse debate, entretanto, deve acontecer tão cedo quanto possível. Unidades de processamento levam entre 3 e 5 anos para serem construídas, coincidindo com o pico de demanda de derivado projetado para o Brasil pela British Petroleum, em seu Energy Outlook. A atual dependência da importação de derivados aumenta a vulnerabilidade a choques externos nos preços de derivados, assim como mitiga qualquer esforço nacional no combate à inflação, visto que, parte dos derivados importados são utilizados diretamente por setores que transmitem por toda a cadeia produtiva.
Destaque-se que, nos últimos anos, não houve um debate sobre as necessidades físicas de expansão do refino. Houve, sim, uma reorientação da política da Petrobras para o setor, sem qualquer discussão republicana, que resultou na venda de ativos, na desintegração e redução da estatal no segmento, o que, por um lado, criou monopólios regionais e, por outro lado, apostou na importação como forma de solução aos limites físicos do parque de refino. Essa é uma opção legítima? Sim. No entanto, não parece ser uma opção que atende aos interesses do país de se ver menos dependente de importações de derivados. Nesse sentido, um debate nacional sobre a necessidade de investimentos no refino é necessário.
Artigo publicado originalmente em Revista digital Oil & Gas Brasil.
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Refino brasileiro: um debate da nação
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