Na guerra dos prejuízos, Rússia por enquanto tem boas cartas
Foto: Andrey Rudakov / Bloomberg.
No dia 6 de março, em Viena, os lideres da OPEP+ (que reúne os países exportadores de petróleo e seus aliados) se reuniram para negociar medidas com o objetivo de frear a desvalorização do barril de petróleo em tempos crise sanitária. Na ocasião, a Arábia Saudita sugeriu que a OPEP e seus aliados, incluindo a Rússia, realizassem um corte na oferta de 1,5 milhões de barris por dia. Tal proposta representaria um aumento nas restrições já existentes da produção, que girava em torno de 2,1 milhões de bdp/dia. Insatisfeito com o novo corte, o governo russo rejeitou o acordo e informou que, a partir do dia 1º de abril, data do vencimento do contrato, deixaria de cooperar com a OPEP e abandonaria qualquer tipo de corte em sua produção.
O fracasso da negociação entre a Rússia e a OPEP resultou em um desequilíbrio entre oferta e demanda. O mês de março foi marcado pelo excesso de oferta, agravado pela decisão da Arábia Saudita de intensificar sua disputa por market share, anunciando que aumentaria a produção e passaria a vender petróleo com desconto. O quadro piorou ainda mais com a imposição do confinamento social em diversos países, ação de combate contra pandemia do Covid-19. De acordo com a Rystad Energy, a demanda gobal deverá cair 16 milhões de bdp/dia já neste mês de abril.
Nesse cenário de incertezas, o Brent e o WTI, os dois principais indicadores das cotações mundiais do petróleo, vêm apresentando forte queda, se situando, neste momento, na faixa de US$ 23 e US$ 26, respectivamente. Essa desvalorização atingiu a economia da Rússia, cujo setor energético representa quase dois terços do PIB nacional. Por conta da importância desse setor, o ministro das Finanças do governo Putin, Anton Siluanov, prevê um déficit orçamentário do setor em US$ 39 bilhões para 2020. As principais empresas nacionais também foram atingidas e apresentaram forte desvalorização em seu valor de mercado. Desde o dia 6 de março, as ações da Rosneft e Lukoil na bolsa de Moscou já caíram 18,2% e 16,5%, respectivamente.
Contudo, apesar desses pontos negativos, a Rússia conta com um Fundo Nacional de Riqueza, que pode assegurar a sua estabilidade macroeconômica nos períodos de crise. O fundo detém mais de 150 bilhões de dólares (9,2% do PIB nacional) e poderia garantir, se necessário, a saúde financeira por até 10 anos, se os preços internacionais se mantiverem no patamar de US$ 25 por barril.
No âmbito geopolítico, tal cenário pode significar uma oportunidade para a Rússia. Isso porque seus principais competidores, EUA e Arábia Saudita, também estão sofrendo com a queda do preço do barril de petróleo. Com a desvalorização do rublo, o custo operacional do barril de petróleo da Rosneft gira em torno de US$ 3,10 por barril, sendo comparável ao custo de US$ 2,80 da Aramco, a estatal saudita. De acordo com o presidente da Rosneft, Igor Sechin, a eficiência da Rosneft pode até ser superior à da Aramco, visto que os sauditas estão vendendo petróleo com desconto.
No que tange às disputas com os EUA, a vitória russa parece iminente. Das centenas de empresas de xisto dos EUA, apenas 16 operam em campos onde os custos médios de produção estão abaixo de US$ 35 por barril. A ExxonMobil, por exemplo, precisa de um preço WTI de US$ 26,90 por barril para poder cobrir os custos e despesas de seus campos. Nesse cenário, as petrolíferas norte-americanas começam a ter sérios prejuízos, ao ponto de já haver uma petroleira de médio porte dos EUA, Whiting Petroleum, a decretar falência.
O que se percebe, nesse contexto de desvalorização dos preços do petróleo, marcado pelo rompimento da OPEC+ e pela pandemia da COVID-19, é que todas as nações produtoras terão perdas. No entanto, a guerra dos preços pode se mostrar uma oportunidade para Rússia deslocar seus rivais, especialmente os EUA, que necessita de um preço do barril mais elevado para cobrir os custos de produção nos seus campos de xisto. Caberá ao presidente russo, Vladmir Putin, manter a sua estratégia e resistir as pressões internas e externas de fazer um novo acordo de contenção da oferta global.
Comentários:
-
sites like uberhorny
Do you mind if I quote a few of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your blog?
My website is in the very same niche as yours and
my visitors would really benefit from a lot of
the information you present here. Please let me know if this alright with
you. Many thanks! -
Trackback: 티비위키
-
click here for info
If you desire to get much from this paragraph
then you have to apply such strategies to your won web site. -
click through the up coming page
I know this site gives quality depending content and additional stuff, is there any other web page which provides such
data in quality? -
Trackback: ป้ายโฆษณา
-
Click Home
Do you mind if I quote a few of your posts as long as I provide credit and sources back to your site?
My blog site is in the very same area of interest as yours and my visitors would certainly benefit from a
lot of the information you present here. Please let me know if this ok with
you. Thanks a lot! -
la escena del swinger en córdoba
Wow, superb blog layout! How long have you been blogging for?
you make blogging look easy. The overall look of your site
is magnificent, let alone the content! -
¿cómo encontrar a alguien para tener sexo en almería
Tremendous issues here. I’m very glad to look your
article. Thank you so much and I’m taking a look forward to contact you.
Will you please drop me a e-mail? -
Trackback: USA Gun Shops
-
click the up coming post
This is my first time pay a visit at here and i am truly happy to
read everthing at one place. -
click through the next page
Hello There. I discovered your weblog the usage of msn. This is a very smartly written article.
I will make sure to bookmark it and return to learn more of your useful info.
Thank you for the post. I’ll definitely return.
-
click here to read
That is really attention-grabbing, You are an excessively
skilled blogger. I’ve joined your feed and sit up
for searching for extra of your wonderful post.
Also, I’ve shared your website in my social networks -
Trackback: แทงบอล 4 ตังค์
-
Trackback: finnish id card
-
Trackback: สล็อตวอเลท
-
Trackback: 웹툰 미리보기
-
Trackback: เว็บหวยออนไลน์
-
Trackback: Cannabis delivery Toronto
-
Trackback: ข่าวบอล
-
top local dating app
Excellent beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your site, how could i subscribe for a
blog website? The account aided me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit
acquainted of this your broadcast provided shiny transparent idea -
dating sites
Magnificent beat ! I would like to apprentice while
you amend your web site, how could i subscribe for a blog
site? The account aided me a acceptable deal.I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered bright clear idea
-
top casual dating site
Unquestionably imagine that which you stated. Your favourite justification appeared to be on the internet the easiest thing to
remember of. I say to you, I definitely get irked at the same time as other people think about issues that they
just do not recognise about. You managed to hit the nail upon the
highest as well as outlined out the entire thing with no
need side effect , other people could take a signal. Will likely
be again to get more. Thanks -
free discreet dating apps
Wonderful beat ! I would like to apprentice while
you amend your website, how could i subscribe for a blog web site?
The account helped me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your broadcast provided
bright clear idea -
free local encounters apps
I am not sure where you are getting your info, but great topic.
I needs to spend some time learning more or understanding more.
Thanks for wonderful info I was looking for this info for my mission. -
Trackback: bonanza178
-
Sex Dating
Hi there to every one, it’s truly a nice for me to pay a quick visit
this web site, it consists of helpful Information. -
Sex Dating
My programmer is trying to persuade me to move to .net from
PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses.
But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using WordPress on various websites
for about a year and am nervous about switching to another platform.
I have heard very good things about blogengine.net. Is
there a way I can import all my wordpress content into it?
Any help would be really appreciated! -
Sex Dating
I’m gone to inform my little brother, that he should also
pay a visit this website on regular basis to take updated from hottest reports. -
Sex Dating
Amazing! This blog looks just like my old one! It’s on a entirely different
topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Superb choice of colors! -
Sex Dating
An outstanding share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been conducting a little research on this.
And he actually bought me dinner because I discovered it for him…
lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!!
But yeah, thanks for spending time to talk about this subject
here on your web page. -
Sex Dating
I don’t know if it’s just me or if everybody else experiencing
issues with your site. It appears like some of the written text
on your content are running off the screen. Can someone else
please comment and let me know if this is happening to them too?
This might be a problem with my internet
browser because I’ve had this happen previously.
Appreciate it -
Sex Dating
Great web site. Lots of helpful info here. I’m sending it to some pals ans also sharing in delicious.
And obviously, thank you on your sweat! -
Sex Dating
I am not sure where you are getting your info, but great topic.
I needs to spend some time learning much more or understanding more.
Thanks for magnificent information I was looking for this information for my mission. -
Sex Dating
When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each
time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment.
Is there any way you can remove me from that service?
Thanks! -
Sex Dating
Thank you for the good writeup. It in reality used to be a leisure account it.
Glance complicated to more introduced agreeable from
you! By the way, how can we keep up a correspondence? -
Sex Dating
It’s actually a cool and helpful piece of information. I’m
satisfied that you just shared this helpful info with us.
Please keep us up to date like this. Thank you for sharing. -
Sex Dating
Howdy just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Safari.
I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do
with browser compatibility but I figured I’d post to let you
know. The layout look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon. Cheers -
Sex Dating
Hi there! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before
but after going through a few of the articles I realized
it’s new to me. Regardless, I’m definitely pleased I discovered it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back often! -
Sex Dating
Wow, that’s what I was seeking for, what a information! present here at
this weblog, thanks admin of this website. -
Sex Dating
Today, I went to the beachfront with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter
and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the
shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside
and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back!
LoL I know this is totally off topic but I had to tell someone! -
Sex Dating
Hi there to all, the contents present at this web page are really awesome for people knowledge, well, keep up
the nice work fellows. -
Sex Dating
Excellent beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your web site, how could i
subscribe for a weblog web site? The account aided me a applicable deal.I had been a little bit familiar of this your broadcast offered shiny transparent idea
-
Sex Dating
Its like you read my mind! You appear to know a lot
about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you can do with
a few pics to drive the message home a bit, but instead of that, this is great blog.
A fantastic read. I’ll definitely be back. -
www.1job.ch
We’re a group of volunteers and opening a new scheme in our community.
Your site offered us with valuable information to work on. You’ve done an impressive job and our whole
community will be grateful to you. -
www.nairaproperty.com
Do you have a spam problem on this website; I also am a blogger,
and I was wanting to know your situation; many of us have
developed some nice practices and we are looking to swap strategies with other folks, please shoot me an e-mail if
interested. -
kalutaralands.lk
I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great.
I don’t know who you are but certainly you’re going to a famous blogger if
you aren’t already 😉 Cheers! -
-
Trackback: ขออย
Comentar
Você precisa fazer o login para publicar um comentário.
Trackback: ตู้คอนโทรลสเเตนเลส