Resultados da Petrobras levantam preocupações
Brasil Energia
A Petrobras divulgou suas demonstrações financeiras referentes ao ano de 2019, destacando, dentre vários itens, o lucro líquido recorde obtido no período, de R$ 40,1 bilhões. Uma análise um pouco mais acurada sobre os números divulgados traz, no entanto, algumas apreensões.
A receita obtida com a privatização de ativos superou em 44,5% o lucro líquido; a receita líquida total caiu 2,6% (apesar do aumento de 27,6% nas receitas com exportações – principalmente de petróleo bruto) e os investimentos, sem considerar o bônus de aquisição dos leilões do pré-sal, caíram 21,8% em exploração e produção (E&P) e 14,8%, no total. Além disso, 71% do petróleo bruto exportado pela Petrobras foi comprado pela China, que atualmente enfrenta sérios problemas na economia em função da epidemia de coronavírus.
Esses números, dentre outros, geraram apreensão no mercado. Após sua divulgação, as ações da Petrobras caíram 14,2% frente a uma baixa de 9,3% do índice Ibovespa, entre os dias 19 e 26/02/2019, o que nos leva a perguntar: do ponto de vista do negócio, está correta a decisão estratégica da gestão atual de diminuir o “core business” da companhia do “poço ao posto” para unicamente o “poço”, o que significa, em outras palavras, concentrar as atividades na E&P? Reduzir drasticamente as atividades em segmentos de produção de derivados/petroquímica, energia elétrica, fertilizantes e logística cria ou destrói valor? Esta questão era formulada antes com foco na rentabilidade no médio/longo prazos, mas, com a crise da China, de longe o maior comprador de óleo bruto da Petrobras (compra sete vezes mais do que os EUA, que aparece em segundo lugar) seus impactos podem ser sentidos no curto prazo.
Aqui cabe uma observação importante: o ano de 2019 foi marcado por vários anúncios de grandes descobertas de petróleo no Irã, na China, no México, na Guiana Francesa, no Suriname e até mesmo em províncias maduras, como o Mar do Norte, onde a estatal norueguesa Equinor, depois de décadas, voltou a descobrir petróleo. O propalado discurso do fim do petróleo vai ficando cada vez mais distante, em virtude das novas descobertas e da introdução de novas tecnologias que tornam econômicos campos de petróleo outrora considerados inviáveis. Além disso, cabe ressaltar a força das grandes empresas de petróleo para determinar a demanda das fontes energéticas no mundo, o que reforça a tese de importância do petróleo no curto prazo, seja pela oferta, seja pela demanda.
Se, antes mesmo destas descobertas, a oferta de petróleo bruto já vinha crescendo acima da demanda mundial, com a entrada em operação destes campos esse processo tende a se acentuar no futuro próximo, mantendo a tendência de queda/estagnação do preço do barril de petróleo.
Enquanto isso, a Petrobras destaca em suas demonstrações financeiras que o processo de venda de metade do seu parque de refino está na fase vinculante, o que permite inferir que, até o final de 2020, se nada mudar, estará totalmente concluído. Isso significa vender a capacidade de produção de 1,1 milhão de barris de derivados/dia. Representa renunciar à metade do mercado nacional de derivados, que está fora do eixo Rio-São Paulo e que justamente tende a crescer mais do que o consumo de derivados no Sudeste.
Outra informação apresentada pela empresa destaca o reconhecimento de perdas da ordem de R$ 824 milhões (100% do investimento) com a Unidade de Fertilizantes Nitrogenados III, em Três Lagoas/MS, que conta hoje com 84% das obras prontas e teve suas atividades totalmente paralisadas – como estratégia de busca por um comprador. Importante frisar que a Petrobras interrompeu toda a sua produção de fertilizantes nitrogenados, o que vem exigindo o aumento das importações para fazer frente às necessidades do agronegócio e criando uma dependência internacional em um dos setores mais dinâmicos da economia brasileira.
Não há dúvida de que o valor agregado pela atividade de E&P é maior que o observado no refino, mas, nas fases de baixa do preço do barril do petróleo, cenário previsto para os próximos anos, as atividades à jusante, como refino, petroquímica e fertilizantes, atuam como um fator anticíclico, uma vez que, historicamente, os preços desses produtos caem menos que o preço do barril do petróleo. Não é sem razão que os grandes concorrentes internacionais da Petrobras têm buscado acentuar a estratégia de diversificação de receitas, mantendo a aposta no E&P, mas com forte participação principalmente no refino, na petroquímica e, mais recentemente, na produção de energias alternativas.
A economia brasileira vem criando uma forte dependência da China, tanto no segmento do agronegócio, quanto na indústria da extrativa mineral. A depender do tamanho da queda da economia da China e da continuidade da decisão da diretoria atual de concentrar as atividades no segmento de E&P, renunciando à diversificação, os resultados operacionais da empresa no futuro podem ser muito limitados.
(*) Henrique Jager é cconomista pela UFRRJ. Foi presidente da Fundação Petrobras de Seguridade Social (Petros) e atualmente é pesquisador do Instituto de Estudos Estratégicos de Petróleo, Gás Natural e Biocombustíveis (Ineep).
Artigo publicado originalmente no portal Brasil Energia.
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