Petrobras decide manter desinvestimentos e foco no petróleo cru
Foto: André Motta de Souza / Agência Petrobras.
Desde o dia 9 de março, o Brent e o WTI, os dois principais indicadores das cotações mundiais do petróleo, vêm apresentando forte queda, se situando, neste momento, na faixa de US$ 23 e US$ 26, respectivamente. A violenta queda nos preços internacionais fez com que as petroleiras se reorganizassem estrategicamente e adotassem ações de maior rigor no controle de gastos, buscando suavizar os efeitos gerados pela crise da Opec+ e da pandemia do COVID-19.
Nesse sentido, a Chevron anunciou uma redução em seus investimentos de US$ 4 bilhões, a Equinor divulgou um corte de US$ 3 bilhões, a Shell reduzirá gastos em US$ 5 bilhões, e a Saudi Aramco planeja reduzir investimentos em US$10 bilhões.
No Brasil, a Petrobras comunicou, nessa quinta-feira (26), um corte de US$ 3,5 bilhões nos seus investimentos para 2020, que cairão de US$ 12 bilhões para US$ 8,5 bilhões. A estatal também vai poupar outros US$ 2 bilhões com gastos operacionais, por meio da hibernação das plataformas em campos de águas rasas, postergação de novas contratações e otimização da logística de produção.
Além disso, a estatal informou o desembolso de uma linha de crédito no valor de US$ 8 bilhões e de duas outras adicionais que somam R$ 3,5 bilhões. Outras ações anunciadas foram: a postergação de R$ 2,4 bilhões em gastos com recursos humanos (adiamento de programas de performance, horas extras, etc) e a transferência, para dezembro, do pagamento de dividendos aos acionantes no valor de R$ 1,7 bilhão.
No setor produtivo, a Petrobras decidiu reduzir a produção de seus campos em função da maior oferta de petróleo no mercado internacional e da redução da demanda, causada pelo efeito da pandemia COVID-19. Nesse segmento, a estatal declarou o corte de 100 mil barris de petróleo/dia até o fim do mês de março. Essa ação inaugura um novo movimento da estatal, indo na contramão do prognóstico anterior, que estimulava o crescimento da produção. Tal decréscimo se torna ainda mais expressivo, visto que, no mês anterior, em fevereiro, a produção no pré-sal já havia caído 6,87%.
É certo que a Petrobras tem focado suas atividades no segmento de E&P do pré-sal. No período entre 2018 e 2019, a receita da companhia com exportação de petróleo cru saltou 6%, aumentando de 18% para 24%. O problema é que, com a redução da demanda gobal, queda de preços e choque de oferta, as exportações de petróleo cru deixam de ser tão atrativas. A maior parte da exportação do petróleo cru da Petrobras é destinada aos países asiáticos, como a China e a Índia, quem vêm aplicando medidas de restrições de locomoção e de isolamento social como formas de combater o avanço do COVID-19.
Diante dessa circunstância complexa, uma alternativa seria focar nas atividades de abastecimento do mercado interno. Para isso, tornar-se-ia necessário aumentar a taxa de utilização de suas refinarias, evidenciando a importância de um amplo parque de refino e seu papel fundamental em períodos de queda de preços do petróleo.
Apesar desse cenário de incertezas, em que o preço dos ativos pode sofrer variações abruptas, o presidente da Petrobras, Roberto Castello Branco, afirmou que seguirá adiante com seu plano bilionário de desinvestimentos, que inclui, por exemplo, a venda de oito refinarias e infraestruturas relacionadas. No PNG para o período 2020-2024, divulgado antes da crise, a Petrobras já planejava desinvestimentos entre 20 e 30 bilhões de dólares, sendo as refinarias um dos principais ativos a serem vendidos.
Pode-se perceber, portanto, que as dificuldades generalizadas, diante da pandemia do COVID-19, resultaram em novo modelo global de contenção de gastos adotado pelas petroleiras. Contudo, apesar desse possível novo paradigma, o interesse de potenciais compradores na negociação das refinarias brasileiras teria se mantido, conforme afirma o presidente da Petrobras. Isso pode significar que as refinarias são tão interessantes que superam o risco do atual cenário e/ou serão privatizadas por um valor abaixo do mercado.
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