O Valor da Petrobras
Revista Fórum
A pandemia de covid-19 evidenciou a importância de uma estrutura estatal robusta para assistir à população em um momento de crise global. O que teria sido do Brasil, por exemplo, sem o SUS e o auxílio emergencial?
Chacoalhadas pela crise econômica e sanitária, as cadeias produtivas globais ainda não haviam se recuperado do choque disruptivo quando veio a guerra na Ucrânia, a qual já provoca ameaças à segurança alimentar e energética internacional.
» Leia também outros artigos sobre Estratégias nacionais e empresariais. Clique aqui.
Tal conjuntura reforça, mais uma vez, o papel fundamental dos Estados Nacionais no planejamento de setores estratégicos da economia, considerando-se que:
- Diferentemente do que prega o liberal-cosmopolitismo, não há uma perfeita harmonia de interesses entre os países, e estes atuam de forma egoísta, buscando obter vantagens relativas no sistema internacional;
- Guerras e pandemia não são contingências excepcionais, ocorrerão regularmente, e os Estados atuarão para garantir o seu suprimento antes dos demais, vide a distribuição absolutamente desigual das vacinas contra a covid.
Para um país periférico como o Brasil, em desenvolvimento, com elevada desigualdade social e em posição vulnerável na divisão internacional do trabalho, se faz ainda mais necessária a atuação do Estado na orientação da economia, estimulando-a via investimentos públicos e preenchendo lacunas que a “mão invisível” do mercado costuma deixar.
Nesse sentido, ter uma empresa estatal forte e integrada como (ainda é) a Petrobras, que possa ser utilizada como vetor de desenvolvimento socioeconômico e agente garantidor de estoques e estabilizador de preços, é absolutamente crucial.
Não é por acaso que os maiores detentores de reservas de petróleo no mundo têm petrolíferas estatais. As exceções são os Estados Unidos – cujas maiores empresas, embora privadas, são nacionais e mantêm estreita relação com todos os governos que por lá passam – e o Canadá, que, na prática, é um protetorado militar dos EUA.
Cumpre lembrar que, até 2016, vigorou, nos Estados Unidos, um decreto que proibia as exportações de óleo cru e que somente foi suspenso devido ao forte aumento da produção nacional em função da revolução dos recursos não convencionais (shale / tight oil and gas). Além disso, os norte-americanos mantêm estoques estratégicos de petróleo, que podem ser acionados pelo governo em situações de queda ou interrupção de fornecimento externo.
Na primeira década do século 21, a Petrobras lançou planos de negócios que previam a construção de três refinarias (Premium I e II e Rnest) e um complexo de refino e petroquímica (Comperj), esta última atividade sendo a de maior valor agregado na indústria de óleo e gás. Além disso, anunciou a construção de novas fábricas de fertilizantes (UFN3 e UFN 5), e ampliou os investimentos em biocombustíveis.
Lançada em 2014, a Lava Jato praticamente interrompeu os projetos greenfield de refino e fertilizantes, que estavam a cargo de empresas de engenharia brasileiras financeiramente quebradas após a interrupção de contratos e com impedimento de fechar novos negócios com a Petrobras e outras empresas públicas devido ao bloqueio cautelar determinado pela operação da Polícia Federal.
A partir de 2016, já sob nova gestão, a companhia deu início a um grande programa de desinvestimentos de ativos “non-core”, a fim de focar seus investimentos na exploração e produção do pré-sal.
Entre os ativos postos à venda estão oito refinarias, das quais duas tiveram contrato de venda assinado (Reman, em Manaus, e SIX, no Paraná) e uma, a Landulpho Alves (RLAM), na Bahia, já vendida ao grupo árabe Mubadala Capital. Recentemente, segundo dados da ANP, o preço de venda de combustíveis na porta da refinaria era o mais caro no país.
Estudos já publicados [1] apontam para o risco de formação de monopólios privados regionais com a venda das refinarias da Petrobras, uma vez que elas não foram originalmente projetadas para competir entre si. Para isso ocorrer efetivamente seriam necessários pesados investimentos em infraestrutura, como terminais e portos, algo que não se dá de um dia para o outro.
Até lá, como ficará a população brasileira, em um país altamente dependente das importações de diesel e gasolina, tendo em vista que a Petrobras adotou, em 2017, a política de preços de paridade de importação (PPI) a fim de abrir espaço para refinarias e importadores privados? Ficará ao sabor das flutuações do câmbio e dos preços internacionais de óleo e gás, arriscando-se ao cozinhar com álcool porque não pode pagar 100 reais ou mais em um botijão de gás?
Como se não bastasse, o país está, hoje, sob risco de desabastecimento de fertilizantes, uma vez que seu principal fornecedor, a Rússia, está em guerra.
Os russos, por sinal, fecharam, por meio da Acron, um pré-acordo de compra da UFN3, a qual, originalmente, fora projetada para ser abastecida com gás do pré-sal brasileiro. Se a operação for concluída, o que garante que a empresa não utilizará gás de procedência russa e venderá fertilizantes mais caros por aqui dada a baixa concorrência local?
Enquanto isso, a política nacional de biocombustíveis, o RenovaBio, não foi capaz de aumentar a competitividade do etanol ante a gasolina. Assim, apesar de o Brasil possuir a maior frota de automóveis flex no mundo, seus motoristas só veem vantagem em abastecer com o biocombustível em poucos estados da federação.
Em sua incessante cruzada privatista, o ministro da economia Paulo Guedes declarou, no final do ano passado, que “a Petrobras não valerá nada em 30 anos se o mundo inteiro migrar para o hidrogênio e a energia nuclear, abandonando o combustível fóssil”.
Sem entrar no mérito da bravata – ou, o que talvez seja mais adequado ao caso, conduta mal intencionada – que é depreciar um ativo que se pretende vender, o fato é que o ministro parte de um cenário que sequer é considerado pelos principais estudos internacionais.
Nenhuma das principais referências em análises sobre o mercado de energia prevê que o mundo deixará de consumir volumes expressivos de petróleo e gás natural nas próximas três décadas.
A petroleira britânica BP Energy, por exemplo, acredita que, em um cenário de rápida transição para uma matriz energética mais limpa, a demanda por combustíveis líquidos (petróleo, biocombustíveis e outros) cairá dos atuais 100 milhões de b/d para 30 milhões de b/d ou se manterá alinhado aos volumes de hoje em 2050. A norueguesa Equinor projeta demanda global por petróleo em torno de 85 milhões de b/d em 2050; a consultoria Rystad Energy, entre 38 e 76 milhões de b/d; e a Agência Internacional de Energia (AIE) entre 24 e 100 milhões de b/d naquele ano.
Ou seja, se, por um lado, a demanda pelos hidrocarbonetos poderá cair significativamente no período em tela, por outro, no melhor dos cenários do ponto de vista ambiental, ainda haverá um consumo relevante em 2050, com chances, inclusive, de ser próximo ao atual. E, ainda que prevaleçam os cenários que apontam para queda importante da demanda por óleo e gás, será preciso renovar reservas, na medida em que amadurecem ativos mundo afora, sendo que o pré-sal brasieiro é altamente competitivo, com reduzido break-even.
Certamente é válida a crítica à decisão tomada pela Petrobras de não apenas não investir de forma significativa em projetos ligados a fontes alternativas de energia como vender ativos de nas áreas de biocombustíveis e geração eólica, em caminho contrário ao percorrido por algumas das principais petroleiras internacionais.
Mas é importante que se diga que essa orientação veio a partir da gestão de Michel Temer – que acelerou o programa de desinvestimentos da Petrobras – e não mudou com o governo de Jair Bolsonaro, do qual Paulo Guedes faz parte.
Portanto, ao invés de simplesmente depreciar aquela que é uma das mais importantes e vitoriosas companhias brasileiras, Guedes poderia tentar convencer o presidente da república a propor a seus representantes no Conselho de Administração da Petrobras que discutam, junto aos demais membros, ajustes no plano estratégico da companhia, diversificando seu portfólio com vistas à transição energética.
E que, em paralelo, se discutam propostas na Petrobras e no congresso nacional para reduzir o impacto da volatilidade dos preços dos combustíveis sobre a vida dos brasileiros.
Artigo publicado originalmente na Revista Fórum.
Fonte:
[1] http://www.anp.gov.br/arquivos/cap/2020/cap1/am-puc-minuta.docx
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