O Ineep explica: os leilões de petróleo no governo Temer
Foto: RFI
Na última segunda-feira (17/12) o presidente Michel Temer autorizou a realização da 6ª Rodada de Licitações de Partilha de Produção do Pré-Sal, além da 16ª rodada de blocos para exploração e produção de petróleo em bacias sedimentares brasileiras, chamadas de pós-sal. Aproveitando os seus últimos dias de mandato, o Ineep relembra os principais pontos do governo Temer e o seu legado para o próximo governo no setor de óleo e gás.
- Os leilões geraram um volume de reservas maior para as petrolíferas estrangeiras que o atual volume total da reserva provada brasileira: Somando as rodadas de leilão realizadas no período (ao todo, foram 6 rodadas em menos de três anos), o governo Temer vendeu às empresas estrangeiras um volume total “in situ” de 59 bilhões de barris de petróleo. Quando calculado o fator médio de recuperação dos campos (percentual que estima o volume de reservas provadas passíveis de exploração), estima-se que o volume de reservas leiloadas seja de 20,7 bilhões de barris, número que ultrapassa o dobro do volume total das reservas provadas no Brasil, atualmente com 10,3 bilhões de bbl.
- Os barris foram vendidos a um preço abaixo das rodadas anteriores: Um dos motivos para o grande sucesso nos leilões durante o governo Temer foi a redução no preço médio do barril. Com preços que variaram entre R$0,23 e R$1,20, os preços médios ofertados em cada bloco ajudam a explicar o interesse das petrolíferas estrangeiras nos leilões. Em um estudo recente, o Ineep mostrou que só na última rodada de leilão do pré-sal a União estima arrecadar 700 bilhões de reais, enquanto as petrolíferas internacionais no mesmo período poderão lucrar aproximadamente 3 trilhões.
- Redução nas políticas de conteúdo local: Outro atrativo do governo Temer para a entrada das petrolíferas estrangeiras nos leilões foi a desregulamentação das regras de exigência para o conteúdo local. Antes da mudança de regulação, ocorrida em fevereiro do ano passado, o percentual de conteúdo local foi, em média, de 62% na parte de exploração e, nas duas últimas rodadas, a porcentagem mínima estabelecida foi de 18%, representando uma redução média de 50% nos percentuais de equipamentos e serviços produzidos no país exigidos em licitações de exploração de petróleo e gás. Por um lado, a diminuição da exigência do conteúdo local facilita a entrada das empresas estrangeiras junto com seus fornecedores de origem, por outro lado, a mesma medida dificulta o desenvolvimento da indústria nacional de bens de capital, acelerando o processo de desindustrialização e aprofundando o quadro de desemprego industrial no país.
- O consumo interno de derivados corre o risco de ficar na mão das petrolíferas internacionais: Com a entrada massiva de empresas estrangeiras nas bacias brasileiras, há uma grande chance de que elas tomem parte considerável do mercado interno de derivados de petróleo. Ao avaliar o volume leiloado nas últimas rodadas e, tendo em vista que o consumo interno de petróleo e derivados teve uma média anual no ano passado de 2,4 milhões de barris por dia, é possível inferir que as empresas estrangeiras tenham capacidade operacional para controlar ou ter importante influência no mercado interno de combustíveis durante as próximas décadas.
- A situação fiscal foi a principal motivação do governo nos leilões: Olhando para o histórico do governo Temer, uma pergunta se torna inquietante: afinal, o que o governo ganhou ao acelerar os leilões a um preço baixo e mudanças regulatórias que acabaram por prejudicar a indústria nacional como um todo e a Petrobras em específico? Talvez a resposta seja a questão fiscal. É que com a entrada de aproximadamente 36 bilhões de reais em bônus de assinatura nos últimos seis leilões o governo Temer conseguiu reduzir o rombo das contas públicas – que apresentou um déficit autorizado pelo Congresso de até R$ 159 bilhões – mas que de acordo com os bons resultados dos leilões e de outras variáveis econômicas podem ter corroborado para que o governo Temer diminuísse o seu saldo vermelho em aproximadamente 20 bilhões de reais, reduzindo os efeitos da crise fiscal no curto prazo a um custo de oportunidade que poderá minar o desenvolvimento brasileiro em uma das maiores oportunidades de nossa história.
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