O cartel está de volta
Correio Braziliense
O anúncio pela Arábia Saudita, no começo de abril, de que ela e os países da Opep reduziriam a oferta mundial de petróleo em cerca de 1 milhão de barris por dia impactou diretamente os preços internacionais de petróleo e derivados. A medida foi seguida da reafirmação pela Rússia de que manteria seu corte de março, de 500 mil barris por dia, até o fim do ano. A iniciativa saudita não é uma novidade e, combinada com o anúncio russo, sinaliza claramente: o cartel está de volta e disposto a evitar a queda dos preços. Tais dinâmicas colocam para o Brasil o desafio de construir uma nova estratégia de inserção no mercado global de óleo e gás, para não ser um mero receptor das turbulências de preços do mercado global.
O anúncio saudita se seguiu a flutuações dos preços ocorridas no mês anterior. Primeiro, os mercados registraram uma queda nos preços de referência por avaliações negativas sobre o cenário internacional. A subida das taxas de juros, o agravamento da situação financeira e instabilidades no sistema bancário ampliaram os temores de uma crise mais aguda, e voltaram os fantasmas da crise de 2007/2008. Na sequência, houve a intervenção dos bancos centrais, sinalizando que buscariam evitar o acirramento da crise, o que começou a tranquilizar e mudar os humores dos mercados.
O anúncio de que a China interromperia sua política de lockdowns se revelou positivo para o futuro econômico. A partir dessas análises sobre o cenário econômico, os mercados internacionais de petróleo e derivados foram impactados, e os preços do petróleo recuperaram uma trajetória ascendente.
O que a reação do cartel no começo de abril apontou é que os principais países produtores não estão dispostos a serem personagens sem protagonismo, deixando os preços guiados pela demanda. Cumpririam seu papel de tentar influir e determinar os preços. A combinação com a Rússia, que não é membro da Opep, também foi um sinal importante, já que o isolamento russo é uma política dos EUA neste momento.
Outro fato geopolítico importante foi a distensão entre Irã e Arábia Saudita sob o patrocínio da diplomacia chinesa. A Arábia Saudita tem sido um histórico pilar dos interesses estadunidenses em todo o Oriente Médio, e a redução da tensão de suas relações com o Irã sinaliza uma possibilidade de mudança de ventos diplomáticos e políticos na região.
Segundo o Oil Market Report, de 13 de abril, a Arábia Saudita lidera a produção de petróleo entre os países da Opep, com uma produção de cerca de 10,5 milhões de barris por dia. Entre os países de fora da Opep, a Rússia se aproxima de 10 milhões de barris por dia. Nos mercados de derivados (produtos refinados), os EUA lideram, mas a China vem crescendo rapidamente sua capacidade de refino. Temos assim a produção de petróleo bruto e a de refinados claramente cartelizadas, com grandes países representando parcelas expressivas da produção internacional.
» Leia também outros artigos sobre Geopolítica. Clique aqui.
E o Brasil com isso? Bem, os movimentos recentes mostram que os principais produtores e consumidores vão tensionar e buscar influenciar os patamares dos preços do petróleo e seus derivados. O Brasil é um importante produtor de petróleo (3,3 milhões de barris por dia, em fevereiro último), mas com uma participação pequena, embora crescente, no mercado global, e que não tem condições de influenciar os preços internacionais. Os movimentos internacionais, entretanto, mostram o caráter estratégico do petróleo, e dinâmicas geopolíticas globais, mesmo com o avanço no desenvolvimento de fontes renováveis. Sem dúvida, as disputas sobre o preço do petróleo continuarão no centro da agenda.
Além disso, o Brasil, hoje, tem uma política de preços internos para os derivados de petróleo bastante passiva, que expõe os consumidores nacionais às flutuações no mercado internacional. Revisar essa política é necessário e urgente. Outro elemento central nesse debate é a política de longo prazo do país para o seu parque de refino. Haverá expansão da capacidade de refino ou não? Vale lembrar que os investimentos nesse segmento são de longa maturação, o que reforça a urgência de uma política estratégica assertiva para enfrentar a atual grande dependência brasileira de importação de alguns derivados, apesar de sua autossuficiência na produção de petróleo.
Os movimentos do mercado internacional de petróleo e derivados nos alertam, mais uma vez, que está mais do que na hora de tomar a política de preços e produção nesse setor como uma variável estratégica para o desenvolvimento nacional, o abastecimento interno e a segurança energética brasileira no curto, médio e longo prazos. É preciso fortalecer uma política setorial que pense para além dos movimentos de curto prazo e que associe a política de preços, abastecimento, exportação (de petróleo) e importação (de derivados) à agenda da transição energética. Afinal, quem não tem uma estratégia é parte da estratégia de alguém.
Artigo publicado originalmente em Correio Braziliense.
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