Ninguém sabe tudo. Petróleo não é um produto qualquer
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O douto economista Rogério Furquim Werneck publicou uma coluna de opinião no Globo onde pontifica sua sapiência sobre a formação de preços de petróleo e funcionamento do mercado e políticas “populistas”.
Começa com a afirmação de que o discurso do ex-presidente Lula sobre “abrasileirar” o preço dos combustíveis representa “30 segundos de discurso populista em estado puro”, e o sábio da Teoria Econômica afirma, do alto de sua sabedoria, que “a fala denota desconhecimento da lógica de formação de preços em uma economia aberta”.
» Leia também outros artigos sobre Geopolítica. Clique aqui.
Vamos lá debater os pontos levantados pelo representante do conhecimento estabelecido. A expressão “políticas populistas” é muito frequentemente utilizada pelos pensadores do establishment acadêmico e econômico para configurar as políticas econômicas de expansão estimulada pelo Estado, com foco na redução das desigualdades sociais.
Desde a década de 1980 vários autores batem na tecla de que nos países europeus e até no Leste Asiático, a estabilidade das instituições que expandiram os instrumentos de controle social e onde as políticas sociais diminuíram as desigualdades no pacto social-democrata, que dominou o mundo capitalista no pós Segunda Guerra, não houve a predominância das chamadas de “políticas populistas”.
Foto: Pixabay.
Logo depois da Segunda Guerra, as economias latino-americanas entraram em um ciclo de expansão, com políticas nacional-desenvolvimentistas em que o papel do Estado era destacado como fundamental para impulsionar a construção de infraestrutura necessárias, para empurrar o crescimento econômico, com vistas a reduzir a dependência das exportações de produtos primários, fazer crescer a participação da indústria nos PIBs nacionais e diminuir as desigualdades econômicas. O conceito de desenvolvimento estava associado a essas políticas.
Políticas de intervenção nos preços eram consideradas como possíveis, e algumas vezes indispensáveis, com vistas a fazer crescer a economia e diminuir os problemas sociais. Esse período foi substituído, abandonando-se os detalhes conjunturais de cada país e cada momento histórico, por um período do domínio do Consenso de Washington, em que a critica às chamadas “políticas populistas” era fundamental para desmoralizar o prestigio das ideias desenvolvimentistas.
É nesse contexto que a tentativa de desmoralização das “políticas populistas” se desenvolve nas principais universidades americanas e nos think tanks, órgãos de criação de ideias e disputa ideológica, do pensamento econômico do mundo capitalista.
Esquecem esses autores a realidade objetiva dos países latino-americanos, africanos e muitos outros asiáticos onde a desigualdade social é tão grande que se torna o principal problema dos países, configurando situações de armadilha de rendas baixas que impedem o deslanchar do processo de crescimento e cujas rendas geradas por vários setores da economia são apropriadas por poucos, sem retroalimentar o processo de investimentos e a entrada em trajetórias de expansão mais automáticas, com menor intervenção do Estado.
É longa a história dos debates sobre as relações comerciais dos países latino-americanos, tendentes a depender das exportações de produtos primários e importar produtos manufaturados, transferindo rendas dos países mais pobres para os mais ricos, incluindo aí o manejo das taxas de câmbio e dos preços internacionais dos produtos exportados, com suas estruturas de preços sob o domínio de grandes grupos produtores e conglomerados importadores, que impedem o “livre funcionamento dos preços” dominados pelos maiores players do mercado.
Numa fase mais recente, com a grande financeirização dos fluxos comerciais e expansão desmensurada dos mercados de contratos futuros, esses preços se desconectaram ainda mais do chamado “custo de oportunidade” e passaram a refletir os grandes movimentos de capitais especulativos, mobilizados por objetivos de maximização de retornos comerciais e de valorização de ativos.
A mitologia do “preço único” e expressão “custo de oportunidade”, que exige conceitualmente mercados com simetria de informações, presença de competidores com igual influência, sem dominância na determinação dos preços, ficou cada vez mais restrita aos livros-textos utilizados nos cursos que são correias de transmissão do pensamento dominante. É isso que o doutor Rogério Furquim Werneck reproduz.
No que se refere ao petróleo, há ainda outras dimensões que precisam ser destacadas. O preço do petróleo passa a ter sua definição nos mercados depois de um aumento da presença de países exportadores, com grande presença de empresas estatais nas exportações.
Antes, por décadas, os preços eram determinados dentro das grandes empresas privadas, especialmente as chamadas Sete Irmãs, que arbitravam onde alocar os seus custos, se nos países produtores ou nos consumidores, pois controlavam a produção e o refino, podendo escolher onde maximizar os seus lucros.
Era a fase dos chamados posted prices em que as grande Sete Irmãs determinavam o valor do petróleo, com vistas e minimizar os custos tributários nos países produtores.
Depois da crise dos preços dos anos 1970 e 1980, a produção fora da Opep cresce, os mercados financeiros se apropriam dos fluxos financeiros e hoje os preços referencias do petróleo são determinados pela ação dos mercados de contratos futuros, fortemente financeirizados, que se aproveitam de fenômenos geopolíticos e relativa escassez conjuntural do produto para operação de hedging ou de simples especulação financeira, de forma que os preços publicados nos jornais como “preços internacionais” são “descobertos” todos os dias, depois que as operações financeiras são computadas por empresas especializados que “determinam” o seu valor.
Não é igual à precificação da feira livre, em que o dono da barraca ajusta a tabela de acordo com as pessoas que estão passando e desejam adquirir o mamão, manga, frutas ou vegetais. A precificação internacional dos preços do petróleo segue outras lógicas.
Por outro lado, o rebatimento dos preços do petróleo sobre os preços dos combustíveis nas bombas dos postos, que são consumidos nos países, ainda que mantenham uma relação com o preço da sua principal matéria-prima, o petróleo, também refletem a estrutura do refino e da distribuição de cada pais.
A gasolina e o diesel mais baratos do mundo estão em países com alta produção de petróleo e com alta capacidade de refinação doméstica. Quanto mais dependente de importações é um país, mas aderente aos preços internacionais do petróleo são dos preços dos derivados consumidos.
Além disso, alguns países, principalmente na Europa, adotam políticas de preços para os derivados que separam sua movimentação dos preços do petróleo, através de tributação que visa reduzir o consumo de combustíveis fósseis. Isso acontece, por exemplo, na Noruega, grande produtora de petróleo, e na Dinamarca, grande produtora de gás natural, que têm a gasolina das mais caras do mundo.
O Brasil, que vinha numa trajetória de se tornar autossuficiente na produção de petróleo e expandia sua capacidade de refino deu um cavalo de pau na política setorial e agora caminha para se tornar um grande exportador de petróleo cru e importador de derivados.
Uma das consequências dessa política é o atrelamento do preço brasileiro aos preços das fontes de fornecimento, mesmo que a produção doméstica, que corresponde a uma grande parcela da oferta nacional seja produzida no Brasil, com a produtividade dos poços do pré-sal, com custos em reais e contabilizados como tal.
Isso possibilita a apropriação de uma gigantesca renda petroleira pelo refino e, com a ausência de impostos sobre as exportações, uma grande renda para os produtores de petróleo no Brasil que não têm refino e são exportadores.
Outros que ganham com essa política são os importadores de derivados que conseguem se apropriar de margens entre os custos de compra no exterior e os de venda no mercado doméstico.
Por fim, gostaria de comentar algumas imprecisões do douto articulista. Não é verdade, simplesmente assim, que os preços da gasolina e do diesel ficaram “inalterados” de 2005 a 2008. Não houve o repasse para o mercado doméstico da volatilidade dos preços internacionais do petróleo, mas houve ajustes nominais, mais suaves no mercado brasileiro.
O nobre articulista também fala de uma “queima de caixa” durante governo da presidenta Dilma. É preciso esclarecer a diferença entre a contabilidade segmentada por áreas de negócio da Petrobras e a contabilidade da corporação como um todo.
A área do Abastecimento, em que se encontra o refino, tem seus custos avaliados pelo Preço Interno de Transferência (PIT), que é uma proxy do preço internacional do petróleo e, na contabilidade segmentada, apresenta perdas quando os preços domésticos não acompanham os seus custos.
Porém, para o cálculo da lucratividade e efeito no caixa da empresa, o que vale é a contabilização corporativa, da Companhia como um todo, onde os custos do refino são avaliados pelos custos de produção doméstica do petróleo e pelos preços internacionais da matéria-prima importada e as margens ocorrem pela diferença entre os preços de venda e custos dos produtos vendidos.
Desde que os preços domésticos sejam superiores aos custos de produção há resultados positivos para a empresa e para o caixa, desmentido o mito da “gigantesca queima de caixa” de 2012-2014. Mas, o doutor Rogério Furquim Werneck, que sabe muito, não precisa entender dos detalhes da contabilidade de empresas de petróleo. Também não devia “pontificar” sobre as opiniões de Lula.
Artigo publicado originalmente pelo portal Holofote.
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