Depois da destruição neoliberal
Ineep
“Em conjunto, todo o petróleo que as grandes empresas petroleiras privadas produzem por sua conta equivale a menos de 15% da oferta mundial total. Mais de 80% das reservas mundiais são controladas por governos e suas empresas nacionais de petróleo. Das vinte maiores empresas de petróleo do mundo, 15 são estatais. Consequentemente, muito do que ocorre com o petróleo é resultado de decisões que, quaisquer que sejam, são tomadas por governos”
Daniel Yergin,
O Petróleo. Uma história mundial de conquistas, poder e dinheiro, Paz e Terra, R.J. 2009, p: 895.
No dia 25 de dezembro de 1991 a União Soviética foi dissolvida e durante a década de 90 uma coalisão de poder formada por uma máfia de políticos corruptos e por de um grupo de economistas e tecnocratas ultraliberais liderados por um alcoólatra inveterado, conseguiu destruir – em apenas uma década – o estado e a economia da segunda maior potência do mundo. Submeteram a política externa da Rússia aos ditames dos EUA e do G7, abandonaram qualquer pretensão russa à condição de “grande potência”, permitiram a desorganização de suas FFAA e sucatearam o seu arsenal atômico.
Em seguida, levaram a cabo uma das experiências mais radicais de aplicação das políticas e reformas neoliberais concebidas nas últimas décadas do século XX. Ainda em 1991, e antes do fim da URSS, Boris Yeltsin já havia encomendado a seu ministro ultraliberal, Yegor Gaidar, a elaboração de um plano de “transição” que foi executado com a ajuda de vários economistas e banqueiros estrangeiros que já tinham participado da “liberalização econômica” da Polônia.
A “ponte para o futuro” encomendada por Yeltsin baseava-se em quatro “reformas” fundamentais: de controle do gasto fiscal, de desregulação dos mercados e em particular do mercado de trabalho, de liberação dos preços e de privatização do setor público, em especial da indústria energética. O ataque neoliberal foi muito rápido. Para que se tenha uma ideia, em apenas três anos foram privatizadas cerca de 70% de todas as empresas estatais russas, enquanto que a abertura e a desregulação dos mercados, assim como a liberação dos preços aconteceram de forma quase instantânea.
Como resultado dessa “pressa neoliberal”, em apenas oito anos o investimento total da economia russa caiu 81%, a produção agrícola despencou 45% e o PIB russo caiu mais do que 50% em relação ao seu nível de 1990. Paralelamente, a quebra generalizada da indústria provocou aumento gigantesco do desemprego, acompanhado de perda de 58% nos salários, enquanto o número de pobres crescia de 2% para 39%, e o coeficiente de Gini saltava de 0,2333 em 1990 para 0,401 em 1999.
Inflexão russa
Esta verdadeira destruição explica, em grande medida, a inflexão estratégica russa que começa no ano 2001, com o fortalecimento do estado, a reorganização das Forças Armadas e a retomada da indústria do petróleo e de todo o setor energético. A estatização da empresa petroleira Yukos, em 1993, foi o pontapé inicial desta remontagem do setor produtivo estatal, através de suas grandes empresas de produção, transporte/distribuição e exportação de gás e petróleo.
Com a ajuda dos preços internacionais do petróleo e do gás, a economia russa se recolocou de pé e passou a crescer a uma taxa média anual de 7% entre os anos 2000 a 2010, e seguiu crescendo, ainda que a taxas menores, até a crise da Ucrânia em 2014. Nesses anos de bonança, o estado russo transformou o seu setor de petróleo e gás no principal instrumento de reconstrução da sua economia nacional, aproveitando a grande necessidade energética da Europa Ocidental e da China.
Num período de 15 anos, a Rússia conseguiu reconquistar sua condição de grande potência europeia e uma das maiores potências mundiais. As sanções econômicas impostas à Rússia pelas “potências atlânticas”, a partir de 2014 e até os dias de hoje trarão problemas inevitáveis para a economia mas tudo indica que já não conseguirão alterar mais o rumo estratégico que a Rússia definiu para si mesma, voltada para a reconquista de sua soberania econômica e militar destruída na década de 90.
De qualquer maneira, a experiência russa destes últimos 15 anos aponta numa dupla direção:
i. Em países extensos e com grande desigualdade social e territorial, as políticas e reformas neoliberais costumam ter efeito imediato e desastroso, do ponto de vista econômico, e catastrófico, do ponto de vista social;
ii. Em países que dispõem de grandes reservas de petróleo ou de gás, é necessário e possível recomeçar a reconstrução de uma economia nacional a partir da indústria do petróleo, transformando-a no eixo dinâmico de uma estratégia global que envolva e direcione o capital nacional e internacional.
Com certeza, a história não se repete nem pode ser transformada em receita, mas pode cumprir uma função pedagógica, e neste caso a experiência russa ensina que ainda é possível refazer o Brasil depois da destruição a que está sendo submetido pelo fanatismo neoliberal.
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