A Petrobras entre a Bolsa e a urna
Folha de S.Paulo
O aumento de dividendos para os acionistas da Petrobras e a elevação do preço dos combustíveis para o consumidor final tem marcado o governo Bolsonaro. Desde 2019, a política de preços de paridade de importação (PPI) provocou 94 alterações no preço do diesel e 107 no preço da gasolina.
De 2019 até o primeiro semestre de 2021, a Petrobras teve um lucro líquido de R$ 91 bilhões e distribuiu R$ 56,5 bilhões em dividendos para seus acionistas, dos quais R$ 41,9 bilhões este ano.
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Se, por um lado, o represamento do repasse das variações dos preços internacionais já se mostrou inadequado para os resultados financeiros da Petrobras, por outro a flutuação com tamanha volatilidade e o alinhamento completo com os preços internacionais está longe de ser o melhor caminho. A falta de previsibilidade e o viés de alta pesam principalmente para os consumidores de menor renda.
Entre 2019 e 2021, o preço Petrobras do diesel sofreu alta acumulada de 23,5%, da gasolina de 51% e do GLP de 85,4%. E a rentabilidade dos acionistas tem sido acompanhada da inflação de combustíveis enfrentada pelos consumidores que já pagam R$ 4,58 pelo litro do diesel, R$ 5,80 pelo litro da gasolina e R$ 91,92 pelo preço do botijão de gás.
A princípio, esse cenário pode até ser avaliado de forma positiva pelo mercado financeiro, mas guarda uma armadilha, sobretudo, quando observado à luz das ações de um presidente que não mede esforços para se manter no poder.
Preocupado mais com a urna do que com a crise econômica, Bolsonaro sinalizou que deve realizar manobras contábeis e fiscais para furar o problemático teto dos gastos. A polêmica proposta de pedalada fiscal de Paulo Guedes na PEC dos precatórios deve ser utilizada para abrir espaço fiscal a partir de 2022.
A emenda busca criar um fundo de liquidação dos passivos da União com venda de imóveis do governo, alienação de participações societárias e recebimento de dividendos de estatais. Parte dos R$ 15 bilhões de dividendos que serão pagos em 2021 pela Petrobras ao governo federal pode ser destinada para esse fundo.
Nesse mesmo contexto, o governo federal apresentou o Auxílio Brasil, que substituirá o Bolsa Família. Em breve, pode incluir um vale gás entre os benefícios a serem pagos com esses recursos.
No curto prazo, a estratégia é engenhosa. O aumento e a antecipação dos dividendos da Petrobras atendem aos interesses do mercado e ajuda a União, acionista majoritária, a irrigar o seu fundo de rolagem de dívidas e precatórios.
Mas, no médio prazo, o quadro é muito problemático. Caso a Petrobras não altere sua política de preços, a inflação de combustíveis seguirá sua escalada e anulará o efeito de eventuais novos programas sociais. Vincular dividendos de estatais a gastos sociais é um perigoso oportunismo eleitoreiro.
Artigo publicado originalmente na Folha de S.Paulo.
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