A ordem mundial do petróleo
Ineep
“Muito do que ocorre com o petróleo desde o final da década de 1990 é resultado de decisões que quaisquer que sejam, são tomadas por governos. E de modo geral, as empresas nacionais de petróleo de propriedade dos governos assumiram um papel proeminente na indústria de petróleo mundial”.
Daniel YERGIN. O Petróleo, uma história mundial de conquistas, poder e dinheiro.
Paz e Terra: Rio de Janeiro, 2009, p. 895.
Nas duas últimas décadas do século passado, a Guerra Irã-Iraque, entre 1980 e 1988, a Guerra do Golfo, entre 1990 e 1991, e o fim da URSS, em 1991, atingiram em cheio alguns dos maiores produtores e exportadores mundiais de petróleo, dividindo e enfraquecendo a OPEP, e destruindo a capacidade de produção russa. Foi um período de anarquia no mercado mundial de petróleo, o mesmo momento em que as grandes corporações petroleiras privadas promoveram uma grande desconcentração e “desverticalização” do seu capital e de suas estratégias, enquanto o petróleo era transformado num “ativo financeiro” cujo preço era renegociado diariamente nas Bolsas de Nova York e Londres. Mas no final dos anos 90 e início do século XXI, esta tendência foi revertida de forma abrupta e radical. E tudo começou, surpreendentemente, pelas próprias petroleiras privadas anglo-americanas, que comandaram, a partir de 1998, uma nova revolução na indústria privada do petróleo, envolvendo-se num processo gigantesco de fusões de empresas que que já eram as maiores do mundo, e que deram origem às atuais Exxon-Mobil, ConocoPhillips, Chevron, BP, e Total.
Esse terremoto se alastrou logo em seguida, assumindo novas formas com a reestatização, reorganização ou fusão entres as “gigantes energéticas” russas, chinesas e indianas, ao lado das que já estavam no mercado, mas alargaram suas ambições, na Arábia Saudita e em todo o Golfo Pérsico, como na Venezuela, Nigéria, México, Argélia e Angola, e também no Brasil, sobretudo depois da descoberta do petróleo em águas profundas, em 2006. Uma transformação tão rápida e profunda que levou o grande especialista em petróleo norte-americano, Michael Klare, a dizer que o mundo havia entrado numa “nova ordem energética internacional”, caracterizada pela hiperconcentração do capital petroleiro privado, pela multiplicação das grandes petroleiras estatais, e pela crescente hegemonia do nacionalismo econômico e do “nacionalismo energético”, entre as grandes potências do sistema mundial, mesmo entre as chamadas “potências liberais”, incluindo os Estados Unidos de Donald Trump, o último dos “conversos”.
O papel das empresas públicas
E de fato, 20 anos depois do início desta transformação, cerca de dois terços das reservas de petróleo do mundo se concentram no território de 15 países, e em 13 deles são de propriedade estatal; das 20 maiores empresas petroleiras do mundo, 15 são estatais e controlam 80% das reservas mundiais. As outras cinco empresas são privadas – três anglo-americanas, uma holandesa e uma francesa – e controlam menos de 15% da oferta mundial do petróleo. Por isso, tem toda razão Daniel Yergin – outro grande especialista americano – quando diz que nos dias de hoje as principais decisões relativas ao petróleo – da definição dos preços ao traçado das grandes estratégias – são tomadas pelos Estados nacionais e suas grandes empresas públicas. Cabe sublinhar, além disto, que pelo lado da demanda mundial do petróleo, que 50% do seu crescimento nos próximos 30 anos deve da China e Índia, cujas estratégias energéticas são comandadas por seus Estados e por suas empresas públicas.
É muito difícil identificar uma causa única que explique esta revolução na ordem mundial do petróleo. Mas é possível pelo menos destacar três tipos de turbulências fundamentais, que ocorreram simultaneamente. No plano econômico, o enorme crescimento dos países asiáticos e, em particular, da China e da Índia, que produziu um verdadeiro “choque de demanda” sobre o mercado mundial de petróleo. E pelo lado da oferta, a grande expansão nesse início do século XXI, da produção norte-americana do petróleo de xisto e dop shale gas, que recolocou os EUA na liderança do negócio mundial de energia. Por outro lado, no plano geopolítico, a guerra quase contínua no Oriente Médio, que já se prolonga desde 2001, provocando um verdadeiro “choque de expectativas” negativas no mercado mundial, com a perspectiva de uma guerra permanente envolvendo as grandes potências, e quase todos os países de dentro e fora daquela região com grandes reservas de petróleo.
Por fim, como consequência dos dois fatores anteriores, a verdadeira “corrida” das grandes potências, para conquistar e monopolizar os novos recursos descobertos neste período, em qualquer lugar do mundo, mas sobretudo no Canadá, Venezuela e Brasil, e em alguns pontos da África. Assim mesmo, num plano mais geral e de longo prazo, se pode afirmar também que esta nova ordem do petróleo é um produto direto e necessário da gigantesca expansão do sistema interestatal capitalista, que ocorreu de forma concentrada nas últimas décadas. Não se trata apenas da China e da Índia; trata-se de um sistema com 200 Estados nacionais que disputam atualmente um recurso absolutamente escasso, concentrado e essencial para sua sobrevivência como sociedades e economias nacionais, mas também como unidades territoriais soberanas que participam de uma luta sem quartel pelo poder e pela riqueza mundial. Uma luta, aliás, que deve se intensificar e aprofundar nas próximas décadas, sem deixar lugar para neutralidades.
Nesse contexto geopolítico, e nessa nova ordem mundial do petróleo, só uma elite inteiramente corrompida e rebaixada, do ponto de vista moral, e completamente imbecilizada, do ponto de vista intelectual, pode abrir mão do controle estatal de seus recursos energéticos nacionais já conquistados.
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Controle estatal: A ordem mundial do petróleo – Ineep | Artigos
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