As ambições da China
Carta Capital
A Ásia não conheceu nos séculos XVI e XVII um fenômeno análogo ao da Paz de Westfália assinada pelos europeus em 1648, e a maioria dos seus estados nacionais – com a grande exceção do Japão – só nasceu ou se consolidou depois do fim do colonialismo europeu, em pleno século XX.
Mas as raízes geopolíticas e culturais de suas três grandes potências regionais – China, Japão e Coreia – são muito anteriores à presença e à influência europeia na Ásia.
Na verdade, suas relações internas e externas de poder só se alteraram efetivamente a partir da segunda metade do século XIX, quando a presença e a dominação colonial europeia passou a intervir de forma direta ou indireta na promoção de novas divisões e conflitos entre os povos asiáticos que foram incorporados aos grandes impérios coloniais construídos pelas potências ocidentais.
Mais recentemente, após a Segunda Guerra, foram os Estados Unidos que tomaram a frente desse processo, modificando novamente o conjunto de relações e estratégias do tabuleiro geopolítico asiático.
O início da Guerra Fria, em 1947, seguido da vitória da revolução comunista na China, em 1949, da Guerra da Coréia, em 1950, e do início da Guerra do Vietnã, em 1954, obrigaram os Estados Unidos a redefinir sua posição frente ao seu inimigo recém-derrotado, apoiando a reconstrução acelerada da economia japonesa e a recolocação do Japão como cabeça de ponte dos interesses estratégicos norte-americanos no Leste e Sudeste Asiático, ao lado da Coréia do Sul e de Taiwan.
Como se fossem verdadeiros “protetorados militares” dos Estados Unidos, com direito a um lugar privilegiado na grande expansão da economia capitalista do pós-guerra, liderada pelos norte-americanos e alimentada pela reconstrução da Europa destruída pela guerra.
Mais tarde, essas mesmas condições vantajosas do Japão foram oferecidas à Coreia, à Taiwan e a todos os países da região chamados na época de “gansos”, por seguirem a liderança dinâmica da economia japonesa.
Jogo geopolítico asiático
Foi neste contexto geopolítico e militar, agravado pela intensificação dos conflitos locais com as guerrilhas comunistas na Malásia, Filipinas e Tailândia, e com o governo pró-comunista de Sukarno na Indonésia, que os Estados Unidos acabaram ampliando sua presença e seu envolvimento militar na Ásia, mesmo sem vencer a Guerra da Coréia (1950-1953), e mesmo tendo sido derrotados na Guerra do Vietnã (1955-1975).
Isso tudo, por si só, seria suficiente para explicar a complexidade do jogo geopolítico asiático depois do fim da Guerra Fria, e em particular nestas primeiras décadas do século XXI.
Mas este quebra-cabeças asiático ficou ainda mais complicado depois da inflexão geopolítica dos anos 1970 que reaproximou os Estados Unidos da China, e transformou a economia chinesa dos anos 1990, e em particular, do início do século XXI, na grande “sócia” regional e global da economia norte-americana, e na segunda maior economia nacional do mundo.
Mas atenção, pois o sucesso econômico desta nova parceria global transformou a China – ao mesmo tempo, e cada vez mais – no grande rival e adversário geopolítico e militar dos Estados Unidos, na luta pela supremacia no Leste e Sudeste asiáticos, e no sul do Pacífico.
Hoje, o sistema de estados e economias nacionais da Ásia está cada vez mais igual ao velho modelo europeu de acumulação de poder e de riqueza, que foi a verdadeira origem do nosso sistema internacional e capitalista.
A Ásia é hoje a zona de maior dinamismo econômico do mundo, e ali também está em curso a competição e a luta mais intensa e explícita pela hegemonia dentro de um tabuleiro geopolítico regional que envolve a China, o Japão e a Coreia, mas também a Rússia e os Estados Unidos, numa luta que deve se transformar no embrião do conflito pelo poder global que deverá dominar a segunda metade do século XXI.
Programa de investimentos
Nesse cenário, a China, que atualmente passou a ser uma espécie de ganso líder da integração asiática, envolveu-se mais intensamente nas disputas geopolíticas e geoeconômicas globais. Nessa disputa, a prioridade chinesa está no processo de forte coordenação econômica e política regional.
Um exemplo está no recém-lançado programa da nova Rota da Seda, no qual a China visa realizar um investimento gigantesco – cerca de 150 bilhões de dólares – em quase 70 países do seu entorno nas áreas de energia e infraestrutura, principalmente.
A construção de ferrovias, oleodutos e portos e a ampliação de rotas de comerciais são algumas das ações desenhadas pelo programa.
Com isso, a China pretende aumentar sua integração política e econômica, sua capacidade de influência na própria Ásia e no Oriente Médio, bem como impulsionar suas empresas estatais e impulsionar sua transição energética. Do ponto de vista econômico, busca-se também diversificar as suas reservas cambiais, abrir novos mercado de expansão e desenvolver novas tecnologias.
Apesar do foco regional da Rota da Seda, seria um equívoco asseverar que a inserção global chinesa se limita à dimensão asiática. É inquestionável que, na última década, a China tem realizado um esforço similar, em termos globais, em programas de infraestrutura e energia, tanto em países desenvolvidos como em desenvolvimento.
A internacionalização de suas empresas para ampliar infraestrutura que atendam o consumo interno chinês e para assegurar fontes energéticas no longo prazo é estratégica para o país.
Desde o segmento de fontes renováveis, principalmente solar, no Chile, passando pelo pré-sal e infraestrutura no Brasil e pelo shale gas nos Estados Unidos, a China tem realizado pesados investimentos no continente americano visando ampliar sua zona de influência global e atender seus interesses comerciais e estratégicos por meio principalmente das suas empresas estatais.
No caso dos Estados Unidos, a China Energy Investment Corp acertou um acordo com o Departamento de Comércio da West Virginia para investir 83,7 bilhões de dólares, nos próximos 20 anos, em projetos de shale gas, estocagem de LGN e produtos químicos para atender o mercado chinês. Esse é apenas um exemplo de que o setor de energia é uma dimensão central para a participação da China no tabuleiro geopolítico global.
Portanto, ao lado da sua estratégia de ampliação do uso do renmibi no mercado internacional e do aumento dos investimentos militares, a entrada da China de forma definitiva no jogo global de infraestrutura, petróleo e fontes renováveis é mais uma dimensão da disputa de hegemonia mundial, ainda que a prioridade imediata seja regional. Não é possível afirmar ao certo quando ocorrerá esse conflito global, mas parece claro que ele, novamente, envolverá guerra, moeda e energia.
Artigo publicado na Carta Capital.
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