Petróleo: uma decisão urgente
A Petrobras foi criada em 1953 para garantir o suprimento de petróleo da sociedade brasileira, num momento em que ainda se discutia a existência de petróleo no território nacional, e hoje, 65 anos depois, o Brasil detém a décima-terceira maior reserva de petróleo do mundo. Ao mesmo tempo, a Petrobras está entre as quinze maiores petroleiras e é a líder mundial no desenvolvimento de tecnologia avançada para exploração petrolífera em águas profundas e ultraprofundas, com uma produção atual de 2,5 milhões de barris por dia, frente à uma demanda diária interna estimada em 2,2 milhões de b/d. Além disto, nesse mesmo período, a Petrobras se transformou numa peça-chave do desenvolvimento econômico do país, e hoje é responsável por cerca de 13% do PIB brasileiro e 8,4% da formação bruta do seu capital fixo, com um investimento – entre 2003 e 2015 – de 1,6% do PIB brasileiro.
Esta trajetória, entretanto, não foi simples nem linear. Nas décadas de 50 e 60 do século passado, a Petrobras foi o grande símbolo do nacionalismo brasileiro, mas foi só nos anos 70 que a petrolífera passou a ocupar papel de liderança na estratégia de desenvolvimento e industrialização do país, sobretudo durante a vigência do II PND, entre os anos de 1974 e 1979. Logo depois do fim da ditadura militar, em 1985, seguiu-se um período de transição e indefinição estratégica, mas na década de 90, o governo de Fernando H. Cardoso se propôs a reorganizar a Petrobras segundo o modelo neoliberal de descentralização e financeirização implementado pelas grandes petroleiras privadas americanas.
Entretanto, o fracasso econômico e a derrota política dos neoliberais, na eleição presidencial de 2002, deixou aberto o caminho para que os três governos sucessivos de Luiz Inácio da Silva e Dilma Rousseff recolocassem a Petrobras – entre 2003 e 2015 – no epicentro de uma nova política nacional de desenvolvimentos, diferente da seguida durante o período militar, mas que só conseguiu definir seu perfil de forma lenta e pragmática, enfrentando através de todos estes anos a resistência do clientelismo, da corrupção e da mais completa falta de visão estratégica da maioria dos partidos que compunham a base de apoio do governo.
As escolhas a serem feitas
Por isso mesmo, não surpreende que quase não tenha havido resistência parlamentar, logo depois do golpe de Estado de 2016, quando a nova direção da Petrobras – ocupada pelos partidários ultraliberais do ex-presidente Fernando H. Cardoso – se propôs retomar o seu mesmo projeto dos anos 90, só que agora sem contar com a legitimidade do voto e o apoio democrático que haviam tido naquele período. Dois anos depois do golpe de estado, entretanto, o fracasso econômico e político do governo golpista está recolocando em cima da mesa, e com a máxima urgência, o problema do futuro do petróleo brasileiro e da própria Petrobras, que deverá ser um dos temas principais – senão o mais importante, do ponto de vista econômico – que estará em disputa nas eleições presidenciais de outubro de 2018. E neste momento, a escolha que a sociedade brasileira terá que fazer será entre dois objetivos e duas estratégias opostas:
i. a primeira, neoliberal, que se propõe continuar e aprofundar a opção de internacionalização das reservas do petróleo brasileiras, com a transformação da Petrobras numa empresa exportadora de óleo cru, orientada pelas flutuações do mercado e das bolsas internacionais. Uma opção que que devolveria o Brasil à condição de uma economia primário-exportadora com a expectativa de transformá-la – na melhor das hipóteses- numa “periferia de luxo” das grandes potências compradoras mundiais.
ii. e a segunda, de tipo desenvolvimentista, que se propõe aumentar a capacidade soberana de decisão estratégica do Brasil – econômica e política – colocando seus recursos petrolíferos, e a própria à Petrobras, à serviço de uma estratégia de longo prazo do estado brasileiro que não rejeita parcerias, nem teme a competição, e que deve se manter constante a despeito das flutuações políticas conjunturais.
Esta decisão é fundamental e urgente, porque a experiência do golpe de estado de 2016 deixou uma lição que não deverá mais ser esquecida: a de que a decisão sobre a estratégia brasileira de utilização de suas reservas de petróleo, e da própria Petrobras, não pode mais ser entregue à uma meia dúzia de tecnocratas, economistas ou militares, nem muito menos a um “mercado” comandado pelos interesses e cálculos diários de um pequeno grupo de banqueiros e rentistas que olham para seu próprio país como se fosse apenas uma oportunidade de acumular capital e riqueza privada. Esta é uma escolha que só pode ser feita, e uma decisão que só pode ser tomada por quem é – de direito – o verdadeiro dono deste recurso estratégico, e da própria Petrobras: o povo brasileiro.
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